Evaluating the Eagles’ Draft Trades

Posted on May 15, 2014

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By Allen Roriguez — Follow this blog on Twitter

The Eagles made the purely pick-for-picks trades (no players involved) on draft day. Using Football Perspective’s draft pick value calculator (FP) and the classic Jimmy Johnson value calculator (JJ), let’s see how the Eagles did.

Trade #1: PHI trades #22 to CLE for #26 and #83

FP: Eagles traded $1.00 for $1.37

JJ: Eagles traded $1.00 for $1.12

Who the players ended up being: Eagles traded Johnny Manziel for Marcus Smith, Jaylen Watkins, and Taylor Hart.

 

Trade #2: PHI trades #54 and #122 to TEN for #42

FP: Eagles traded $1.00 for $0.82

JJ: Eagles traded $1.00 for $1.17

Who the players ended up being: Eagles traded Bishop Sankey and Marqueston Huff for Jordan Matthews.

 

Trade #3: PHI trades #83 to HOU for #101 and #141

FP: Eagles traded $1.00 for $1.28

JJ: Eagles traded $1.00 for $0.75

Who the players ended up being: Eagles traded Louis Nix for Jaylen Watkins and Taylor Hart

 

The Eagles traded back twice and up once. Numerous explorations (Loser’s Curse paper, sports+numbers article) suggest trading up is typically ineffective, and I think that makes sense. People prefer certainty to uncertainty (ambiguity aversion). If you trade up in the draft, you do so knowing exactly which player you are getting. But when you trade back, there is uncertainty about exactly which players those picks will be used on. To assuage a team’s lack of desire to take on uncertainty, it makes sense that the team moving up has to “lose” the trade. Also, the trade calculators inherently have a tough time accounting for the “gladiator effect,” which probably mildly benefits the team that trades up in a way that the numbers currently can’t completely account for.

The trades with players involved aren’t suited for the draft calculator, and the Bryce Brown trade is simply too complicated anyway, but to conclude, we can look at who the drafted players ended up being in the Isaac Sopoaga snookering and the Darren Sproles trade.

PHI traded Isaac Sopoaga and Zach Moore (#198) for Ronald Powell (#169), and Ronald Powell to NO for Darren Sproles.

It will be fun to look back at these trades in the coming years.

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Posted in: Eagles, Uncategorized